October is nearly on its last days. That means that holiday season at the movies is in!
For Disney, all eyes are on their two major releases to make waves in the box office: Moana 2 and Mufasa: The Lion King. With excitement and curiosity surrounding the two huge sequels, they will surely top the holiday box office.
Starting with Moana 2, the sequel to the 2016 Disney animated hit, it is one track to earn over $100 million during the Thanksgiving week. According to the tracking service Quorum, around $75-82 million of which will be gained from Friday to Sunday.
That forecast places it below Frozen 2 and its gross of $125 million over Thanksgiving - the last time Disney was able to hit high numbers for the holiday. And much like the mega-sized sequel from one of Disney’s most successful properties, Moana 2 might gain the same trajectory.
The first Moana was a decent hit back in 2016, ultimately earning $687.2 million worldwide. However, it gained and maintained prominence in its home release, especially on its home streaming service Disney+, where it became a mainstay in overall streaming charts.
The sequel was first produced as a limited series for the latter streaming site, but it was retooled as a feature-length movie. With the sequel and its upcoming live-action adaptation, it is clear that Moana is reaching the same heights as Frozen. A potential billion-dollar gross is never out of the conversation.
But the same may or may not be said for Mufasa: The Lion King. Box office predictions of the big-budgeted sequel, this time directed by Moonlight’s Barry Jenkins, are still up for speculation. However, there are many factors that can determine its outcome.
One prominent point is the mixed reception of the first movie. While Lion King 2019 earned $1.66 billion worldwide, critics were lukewarm on the film, as seen from its 52% Rotten Tomatoes score (as of this writing). But audiences were more receptive, given the 88% score of the review aggregator site.
Another is the poor track record of sequels of Disney live-action remakes. Tim Burton’s reimagining of Alice in Wonderland earned $1.03 billion, but its sequel, Through the Looking Glass, achieved $299.5 million. The same pattern applies to Maleficent ($758.5 million) and its sequel Mistress of Evil ($492.2 million).
Any misstep from the sequel can lead to a precipitous drop of interest, even with a new filmmaker and vision behind the camera. But Barry Jenkins may be well-suited for retracing the origins of the future king of the Pride Lands, in the style of The Godfather Part II.
But in any shape or form, these animated sequel behemoths will surely rule the box office, guaranteeing the studio’s returning winner streak for the year 2024.